May 13, 2013
Economic Update: No Serious Hit to Hiring, Yet…
 In this segment, Standard & Poor’s Deputy Chief Economist Beth Ann Bovino notes that the government jobs report stood out as the showstopper this week. The Bureau Of Labor Statistics’ 165,000 job gains was in line with our forecast, but above the 140,000 expected by consensus, as the slew of weaker than expected economic reports, including the soft ADP private sector payroll survey, gave markets reason to worry. May 9, 2013
Monthly Average of Initial Jobless Claims Drops Near Pre-Recession Level
First-time filings for jobless benefits again beat economist predictions by falling to their lowest level since January 2008 in the week ended May 4, according to a report Thursday from Washington. The four-week moving average dropped to its lowest level since late 2007. The Labor Department said that filings for initial jobless claims decreased by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 323,000 in the latest week from a revised 327,000 (up from 324,000) in the week ended April 27. Economists were expecting the number of claims to increase to 336,000. Suggesting a continually improving jobs market, the monthly average of claims, a closely watched measure of labor trends because it strips-out weekly volatility, dropped by 6,250 to 336,750. That marks the lowest level since November 2007, a time when the “Great Recession” was just getting underway. This new data dovetails pretty (more)… May 8, 2013
Handicapping the Potential Successors to Ben Bernanke
A couple of days after the Fed announced Ben Bernanke would not attend the Jackson Hole summit, for the first time in twenty five years, the New York Times (on the first page, no less) ran an in-depth profile of Janet Yellen, the heir apparent to run the Fed. Beneath her profile there were three other candidates “being discussed”: Roger Ferguson, Tim Geithner, and Larry Summers. We at QB Asset Management normally do not spend time handicapping presidential appointments. In this case, however, we think the choice for next Fed Chair may have profound economic implications, and that it would not require expertise in econometric modeling, credit policy management, and maintaining the public perception of economic stability. We think the next Fed Chairman will oversee a conversion of the global monetary regime. A thick skin, diplomatic skills, and strong relationships (more)… May 7, 2013
Bull Run – Investor Panic in Offing?
 Japan and in the U.S. in pre-market trading. Anxiously waiting for the market to open to see how much more money you will make today? Worried you will miss the next stock to take off? Subscribing to financial newsletters, expecting your gains to quickly cover the cost? Rejecting warnings of risk of a correction? You are a normal investor, in a bull market that appears to have broken free of a host of adversities, i.e. its safe to invest. Investment fever will accelerate, stocks will run for the wrong reasons, tiny unknown stocks will become household names. This will happen, in time, but not without corrections along the way. TODAY: Looks like a nice open will greet investors today with the DJIA rising 60 points in early trading. The negatives are mostly of a foreign nature. Support is DJIA 14,896 (more)…
John Mauldin: The QE Sandpile
 Ubiquity, Complexity Theory, and Sandpiles We are going to start our explorations with excerpts from a very important book by Mark Buchanan, called Ubiquity: Why Catastrophes Happen. I HIGHLY recommend it to those of you who, like me, are trying to understand the complexity of the markets. Not directly about investing, although he touches on it, it is about chaos theory, complexity theory and critical states. It is written in a manner any layman can understand. There are no equations, just easy to grasp, well-written stories and analogies. As kids, we all had the fun of going to the beach and playing in the sand. Remember taking your plastic buckets and making sand piles? Slowly pouring the sand into an ever bigger pile, until one side of the pile started an avalanche? Imagine, Buchanan says, dropping one grain of sand (more)… May 6, 2013
Economic Data Scant for Week of May 6
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 broke through to new record highs last week, fueled by a steady stream of impressive economic data that generally outpaced predictions of economists. The tech-heavy Nasdaq may not be breaking any all-time records, but it is now sitting at its highest level since November 2000. As the Dow looks to push above and hold over 15,000 this week, it won’t be able to rely on economic data this week as a catalyst. In fact, it will be one of the slowest weeks in news from Washington so far in 2013. Normally, we have a healthy list of what to look for, but this week as far as statistics that can sway the market, investors will only get initial jobless claims from the Labor Department on Thursday. For the week ended April 27, (more)… May 3, 2013
US National Debt Myth Busters Part II: Never Put Off Until Tomorrow What You Can Do Today
 “Never put off until tomorrow what you can do today” — Part I Part II picks up with more analysis on this ponderous national issue in the face of federal actions related to the budget and the deficit. Part I took up two compelling reasons that tell us the myth maintains currency: the growth of government and our rising dependency on the government. The third reason concerns the probable cheapening of the dollar. Consider the effect on the economy of the first two issues. The society depends on government services; these services are growing rapidly and virtually impossible to cut. The cost is high and this leads to annual deficits. Interest payments on the debt grow each year, but their power to leverage the deficit is absent from public discourse. During the recent recession, the Federal Reserve issued or purchased (more)…
S&P Economic Update – Not So Fast
 In this segment, Standard & Poor’s Deputy Chief Economist Beth Ann Bovino notes that recent reports point to a slowdown for the U.S. economy, with first quarter GDP growth coming in weaker than what markets had expected. The disappointing March construction spending report will weigh further on first quarter growth and helps explain why the Fed made no hint of tapering down asset purchases after its last FOMC meeting. However, the March trade report was much narrower than expected, which will help keep first quarter growth rate near the current 2.5% figure, or maybe even a bit higher. May 2, 2013
As Sam Sees It: The Possible Catalysts and Pitfalls Ahead
 Each week, we tap the insight of Sam Stovall, Chief Equity Strategist for S&P Capital IQ, for his perspective on the current market. EQ: We’re a little past the halfway point for Q1 earnings season, and so far about 70 percent of the companies that have reported so far have beat estimates. At this current pace, it looks like Q1 2013 will avoid becoming the troughing quarter that some were concerned about heading into this reporting season. Is this an encouraging sign for bulls? Stovall: It is encouraging, certainly from an earnings perspective, because at the beginning of the first-quarter reporting period, S&P Capital IQ reported that consensus estimates expected only a 0.5-percent increase, but now earnings are actually expected to be up by over 4 percent this quarter as data continues to be revised. So I would tend to say (more)…
Initial Jobless Claims Drop to Lowest Level in More than Five Years
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The Labor Department reported Thursday morning that the number of Americans filing for first-time jobless benefits dropped by 18,000 to 324,00 in week ended April 27 from a revised 342,000 claims (up from 339,000) the week earlier. The decline in claims took the figure to its lowest level since January 2008. Economists were expecting a mild increase in claims during the week to 346,000. The four-week moving average of claims, a less-volatile measure of the jobs market, decreased 16,000 to 342,250, marking the lowest level in six weeks. The Labor Department said that there was nothing unusual in the latest data and that no state’s figures were estimated. Claims can be particularly volatile during the month of April because of the impact of school vacations and the Easter holiday that doesn’t fall during the same week each year. A Labor (more)… |
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| Symbol | Last | Change | % Change |
| DJIA | 15,387.58 | 52.30 | 0.34 |
| NASDAQ | 3,502.12 | 5.69153 | 0.16 |
| S&P 500 EOD | 1,669.18 | 2.89 | 0.17 |
| 10yr Trsy | 19.44 | -0.26 | -1.32 |
| Data is delayed 20 mins/EOD | |||
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