ETF Analyst Todd Rosenbluth joins Beth Piskora, S&P Capital IQ Editorial, to discuss gold ETFs. To read this and all Trends & Ideas content, please visit www.marketscope.com.
May 24, 2013
May 3, 2013
Is Gold Losing Ground to Emerging Markets in the ETF World?
While still the world’s biggest bullion ETF, the SPDR Gold Shares Exchange Traded Fund (GLD) took the brunt of the beating sustained by commodities last month, and has now lost its position as the second-place holder in terms of largest U.S. ETFs by assets, falling to third behind the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO). Down almost 6 percent over the past month, GLD lost $6.77 billion of investor cash in April, the ostensible result of a 7.6 fall in the price of the precious metal. The ETF has lost more than $13.5 billion in assets in 2013 alone. Various reasons have been given for the travails of gold and by extension the most important gold ETF, with the Federal Reserve being among the most widely cited of these, but for reasons that are not immediately evident. In a climate (more)…
April 22, 2013
5 Natural Gas Exchange Traded Funds
The U.S. Energy Department reported that natural gas supplies increased by 31 billion cubic feet last week, which, while shy of analyst expectations, marked the first storage increase of 2013. Meanwhile, unseasonably cold temperatures throughout the central United States are expected over the next two or so weeks. These two factors have much to do with why natural gas futures hit an intraday high of $4.335 per million BTU (British Thermal Units) on Thursday. Furthermore, natural gas has been immune to the savage beating that most commodities have taken over the past week. This situation is due in part to the much heralded “energy revolution” that is currently just beginning in the United States, as large reserves of shale-based oil and natural gas are being sought and discovered all over the country. But there is more to the story since, (more)…
April 17, 2013
April 16, 2013
How to Trade This Gold Market: Long, Short, or Neither?
Author’s Note: First of all, our hearts and prayers are with those who were hurt today in the Boston bombings, and their families; especially those families who lost loved ones today. Gold, silver, oil… all moving lower (in some cases, such as gold, a LOT lower). China reported slower growth than expected. Hard to figure how a miss of one-tenth of a point on data that no one believes is trustworthy anyway, would have such a huge push down on commodity prices. There are some who believe that the EU will require some member countries (Cyprus, Italy, Portugal, etc.) to liquidate state-owned gold to help pay down their debt. These and other not-so-obvious reasons are why gold selling has moved into a panic-driven fevered pitch. Fortunately, the CycleProphet forecasts for oil, gold and silver have all been bearish for weeks. Those forecasts have kept (more)…
Is Gold Still a Safe Haven?
Late last week, gold started to go over the precipice, bringing other precious metals with it, and all were in what looked like a downward spiral throughout Monday in a frantic sell-off. On what was already a bad day for equities that saw losses of 1.79 percent on the Dow, 2.30 percent on the S&P 500, and 2.38 percent on the Nasdaq, gold prices dropped almost 9 percent against the dollar, down to $1,365 per ounce. The situation for both equities and commodities was only worsened with the shock of reports of explosions at the Boston Marathon that came in shortly before the close of trading. Typically gold, and to a lesser extent other precious metals, are considered a “safe-haven” investment. However, recent events have overturned the traditional scenario. Against many odds, stocks have soared in 2013. With investors seemingly (more)…
April 15, 2013
Examining Gold ETFs as Precious Metals Enter Bear Market Territory
On Tuesday, April 9th, Deutsche Bank (DB) cut its 2013 and 2014 forecast for gold prices, and did so rather drastically. For 2013, the bank decreased its forecast for gold by 11.8 percent, down to $1,637 per ounce, and the 2014 forecast by 4.7 percent, to $1,810 per ounce. Citing expectations of the U.S. dollar’s continued strengthening, as well as U.S. GDP growth, Deutsche Bank analyst Daniel Brebner noted that “we expect that gold will struggle to appreciate meaningfully against the U.S. dollar”. The very next day, Goldman Sachs (GS) followed suit, cutting its price forecast for the precious metal from $1,610 to $1,545 for 2013, and to $1,350 in 2014 down from initial estimates of $1,490. Additionally, the bank mentioned that “a sharp rebound in gold prices is unlikely”, which has been more or less interpreted as an invitation (more)…
April 5, 2013
Recent Action in Silver ETFs Is Bad News for Precious-Metals Bears
Two weeks ago we looked at the difference between gold ETF outflows vs. physical gold purchases, and showed that most sales were coming from the former while aggressive buying was coming from the latter. This week we examined the same data for silver – and discovered a rather striking trend. Not only are silver ETFs seeing no net outflows, their holdings are increasing. Bearish investors who treat the two precious metals as being the same, interchangeable thing, and sell silver along with gold are at risk of missing the boat. Here’s how holdings in SLV, the world’s largest silver ETF, compare to those of GLD… The divergence between gold and silver funds is clearly evident. As of March 28, SLV holdings stand at 344,128,478 ounces, up 5% so far this year and just 7% below 2011′s record high. It’s not (more)…
April 2, 2013
What Should Traders and Investors Do Now After Breaking Through All-Time Highs?
While the S&P 500 closed a climactic first quarter with a final push through record highs, investors and traders are now at a point in question of whether the market will continue to move higher, or if the long anticipated pullback will finally take place. In this week’s interview with Toni Turner of TrendStar Trading Group, we discuss what other levels warrant closer attention to determine the near-term direction for the market. EQ: The S&P 500 managed to close above the previous all-time high on the final day of the first quarter. What are your thoughts now that it has happened? Turner: It’s all well and good, but I’m not going to be truly impressed until the S&P 500 closes above its intraday high of 1576 logged back in October 2007. That is when I’ll be convinced that we’re going (more)…
March 12, 2013
When Will the Market Finally Put Its Foot Down?Older Posts »
In this week’s interview with Toni Turner of TrendStar Trading Group, we discuss the market’s need to balance its footing after such an extended run, as well as whether investors have found a suitable replacement for Apple (AAPL) as the company’s stock continues to struggle. EQ: We’re within arm’s reach of the S&P 500’s all-time high. Is that the level that you’re watching or are you watching where the index can move beyond that point already? Turner: I’m watching it with interest. In my current Market Now, which is the free video I send to my website subscribers every weekend, I reported that the S&P 500 is nearly 10 percent over its 200-day moving average. That’s comparable to the heights it reached when it rallied in April and September of last year. If you go back further than that, you’ll (more)…